The all-important USDA prospective planting and stocks on hand reports came out today and there were several surprises to report. Most importantly, Corn planting projections came in at 93.6 million acres, well above pre-report estimates, and prices are expected to remain weak for the near future. Milo stocks on hand are substantially higher than pre-report expectations as well, and prices should continue to soften in the coming months. Soybean stocks on hand are 15% higher than last year, so more bearish news on that front. Couple all that with a strong dollar, and the commodities outlook for the major grains should be continued bearish. Here are some updates on the specialty crops pertinent to our industry:
Sunflower – planting intentions down 9% from 2015, 4th lowest acreage since 1977, stocks on hand are 52% higher than 2015. Weak demand has produced a glut in supply and FOB prices have been steady in the $18-$23 range depending on spec.
Peanuts - planting intentions down 9% from 2015, stocks on hand not reported. Afla spec for bird food continues to cause issue on current contracts. Most trades have been in the $25-$26 range for wildlife pickouts FOB Origin. Fancy Inshells are all but sold out for 2015 crop year
Millet - nothing reported. It’s a battle with farmers at this point to get the lowest prices, values hovering in the $7-$8 range for bulk recleaned white proso for domestic shipments
Safflower – not reported yet. Relatively high prices are sure to attract more growers, I expect acreage to rise in 2016. Values in the $25 - $28 range depending on spec FOB origins
All of this info is just a starting point for the new crop, feel free to call for specifics.