Market Update March 2015

My take is always that the  stocks on hand report are more important right now than prospective  plantings for near term prices.  As far as the major grains, corn stocks  on hand are up 11% from last year, and intended acres are down only 2%,  so Corn prices should soften.  Soybean stocks are WAY up (34% over  2014), and projected acreage is up as well, so prices should be soft.    All of this info was close to pre-report estimates, so I don’t expect  any limit movements on the board today, however.  As for the specialty  crops we deal in, here is some more info:

Sunflowers:  Planting  intentions are up 14% over 2014 which should help ease pricing at  harvest.  Unfortunately stocks are down 14% from last year which is  pushing old crop prices up right now. What the USDA does not report is  crop quality, which has been very poor this year.  So realistically,  usable  stocks on hand are down more than 14% and I expect pricing to  continue on an upward trend through the summer.

Peanuts: Growers  intend to plant 1.48 million acres in 2015, up 9 percent from last year.  The expected increase in planted area is mainly due to relatively low  prices of other crops, especially cotton.  Stocks on hand were not  reported, but in talking with growers, my best guess is 150+ days of  carry through at current demand levels will be on hand at 2015 harvest.   Prices are currently near 5 year lows due to the glut in supply.  The  question is have we seen the bottom already?

 Millet: No news  reported today.  However, prices have stabilized and supply is abundant  for white and red proso.  Farmers have been very reluctant to sell any  lower than current values, and less will be planted in the upcoming year  unless values come up.  This will set up a long termer term bullish  trend, albeit slight.

Peas:  Projected plantings are up 7% over  2014 and stocks were not reported.  Prices have been moving up lately as  the government continues to offer above market tenders.   

Safflower:   Stocks and Acreage were left off of today’s report.  However, the  market has not been supportive of current values and prices have come  down in the last few months as supplies are plentiful this year.  I  don’t expect any decrease in acreage yet though, as per acre values are  still advantageous to farmers.