My take is always that the stocks on hand report are more important right now than prospective plantings for near term prices. As far as the major grains, corn stocks on hand are up 11% from last year, and intended acres are down only 2%, so Corn prices should soften. Soybean stocks are WAY up (34% over 2014), and projected acreage is up as well, so prices should be soft. All of this info was close to pre-report estimates, so I don’t expect any limit movements on the board today, however. As for the specialty crops we deal in, here is some more info:
Sunflowers: Planting intentions are up 14% over 2014 which should help ease pricing at harvest. Unfortunately stocks are down 14% from last year which is pushing old crop prices up right now. What the USDA does not report is crop quality, which has been very poor this year. So realistically, usable stocks on hand are down more than 14% and I expect pricing to continue on an upward trend through the summer.
Peanuts: Growers intend to plant 1.48 million acres in 2015, up 9 percent from last year. The expected increase in planted area is mainly due to relatively low prices of other crops, especially cotton. Stocks on hand were not reported, but in talking with growers, my best guess is 150+ days of carry through at current demand levels will be on hand at 2015 harvest. Prices are currently near 5 year lows due to the glut in supply. The question is have we seen the bottom already?
Millet: No news reported today. However, prices have stabilized and supply is abundant for white and red proso. Farmers have been very reluctant to sell any lower than current values, and less will be planted in the upcoming year unless values come up. This will set up a long termer term bullish trend, albeit slight.
Peas: Projected plantings are up 7% over 2014 and stocks were not reported. Prices have been moving up lately as the government continues to offer above market tenders.
Safflower: Stocks and Acreage were left off of today’s report. However, the market has not been supportive of current values and prices have come down in the last few months as supplies are plentiful this year. I don’t expect any decrease in acreage yet though, as per acre values are still advantageous to farmers.