The USDA released revised Planting Intention reports and Quarterly Stocks on hand today, and there is much to be aware of. As far as the major grains, which are important from a perspective that they drive overall price direction, here is some info. Corn – acreage is up from last estimate, and the 3rd highest planted acreage since 1944. Stocks on Hand are 6% higher than this time last year. This should be considered bearish. Soybeans – Estimates are for an all-time record high acreage planted, with stocks on hand up 39% from June 2015. This is also bearish, although the market is reacting with higher prices. Go figure…
As for the specialty crops, here are some more figures.
Peanuts – Acres are down 4% from last year. Stocks on hand were not reported. I attended the US Peanut Congress this week in SC, and the shellers all say they will be shelled out of 2015 crop by mid September, and have forward sold basically all supplies. Meanwhile the last report indicated 1.4M tons of carry through. The question is, where did that all go? China has been buying heavily lately, and depending on how much they bought, we could see a jump in prices as soon as that number is realized. Wildlife market sellers are holding tight for both old and new crop, at least until more is known.
Sunflowers – Acreage is down 11% from 2015 (down 8% for oiltype varieties). Stocks on hand are still adequate. Prices have been very stable since 2015 harvest, and should remain steady in the near term.
Safflower – Acreage is down 11% from 2015 and will be 4th lowest since 1976. Stocks on hand are not reported but farmers are talking of heavy supplies on hand to help with the acreage decrease.
Proso Millet – Acreage is down 8% from 2015, which is mainly due to low values. Stocks on hand are not reported but again, weak demand means plenty of millet in the bins.
Decreased acreage is direct a result of decreased demand for specialty crops in the 2015-2016 marketing year. New crop prices are all in line or slightly higher than old crop values.
I attached the reports, please call us for specific pricing or more info.